Foresight Alliance | “After COVID-19, Nothing Will Be The Same”

A Guide To Evaluating Forecasts

Immersed in a global event that is shocking in its reach, scope, and speed, people are understandably unsettled and want to know what the future holds beyond this pandemic. As futurists, we face this question daily.

Experts and pundits are forecasting wholesale changes to every industry and every part of life, but only a minority of these forecasts of massive, permanent change will bear out. Some exaggerate the degree and duration of change, mistaking a radically shifted present for long-term transformation. Others are wishful thinking on the part of ideologically or emotionally motivated forecasters.

This is not new. In the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, countless articles promised that everything was going to be different. But within months we were back to laughing at comedians, engaging in petty politics, buying ordinary novels, gluing ourselves to escapist TV, and doing most other things that people had written off as lost to another era.

So how can we detect what the pandemic will truly change versus what is likely to fade along with the virus? To answer that, our team has examined myriad changes predicted for the wake of COVID-19 and come up with criteria to evaluate their stickiness. Below are two lists: criteria that suggest a forecast for pandemic-driven change should be viewed with skepticism, and criteria that indicate more plausible forecasts. The aim of this framework is to help us all realistically assess how the pandemic will affect the world long-term, and perhaps to avoid fearing — or hoping for — shifts that are unlikely.

Questionable forecasts

Some of the changes being posited as permanent will dissipate rapidly, lasting only as long as the pandemic and its immediate aftermath. You can doubt a forecast for the post-pandemic world if the forecast is:

Based on a temporary imbalance. People do not actually want to do nearly all of their shopping online or have their restaurant food only by delivery, so current practices do not reflect people’s true preferences. Many people want and need to be near their coworkers, not telecommuting full-time. In countless now-unbalanced systems, patterns will rebound toward their prior states — though often not all the way.
Out of line with basic human impulses. Change has to work with human nature. Most obviously, the virus forced us to distance ourselves from each other, in a way that only the most extreme introverts could tolerate indefinitely.
About a threat to entrenched economic and institutional interests. People and businesses with political and economic power will not readily transform the systems that serve them, even when the virus has revealed those systems to be unjust or dysfunctional.
At odds with deep cultural practices. Essential components of a culture won’t be erased by a few months of emergency. Italians will return to their multigenerational family socializing. Americans will return to handshakes, and stop wearing masks. Japanese salarimen will pack into subway cars. Faithful Muslims will throng the Kaaba during Hajj.
Wishcasting. Many forecasts reflect the social, political, or economic hopes of the person writing about them. That’s not to say that the upheaval created by COVID-19 won’t bring about the Green New Deal or a return to “traditional” gender roles, but you need to pay attention to who is making the forecast and how it may neatly match their personal agenda.

Credible forecasts

A forecast about the post-virus world is more likely to bear out if it:

Aligns with trends already underway. The pandemic accelerated many trends that were already changing the world, including telework, automation, streaming entertainment, growth in delivery and curbside services, and reconsideration of global supply chains. Some of the surge in these trends will ebb after the pandemic, but only partially — and that means the expected futures for these trends will arrive earlier than anticipated, some much earlier.
Is based on something useful the pandemic revealed. This revelation can be as significant as the feasibility of more remote work and telemedicine, or as trivial as enjoyment of puzzles.
Notes the breakdown of outdated or artificial barriers. The pandemic emergency has shattered many barriers — of cost or tradition, for instance — and forced rapid innovation. Thus we see studios bypassing theaters to release major new movies on streaming services, telemedicine via FaceTime and Skype, and rapid expansion of remote education.
Accounts for psychological needs. Some kinds of health and hygiene steps will persist — for instance, ubiquitous hand sanitizer and an emphasis on handwashing — because they reassure us and seem at least plausibly useful, akin to post-9/11 “security theater” bag checks and anti-vehicle bollards.
Acknowledges what is irreparable. Many things will be destroyed by the pandemic, beginning with individual lives and the health of many of the survivors. Vast numbers of businesses will fold, and other institutions — including some colleges — may go under too.

Certain factors increase the likelihood that deeper and more systemic changes, and less-probable events, will occur. The longer a society or industry is subjected to disruption and stress by a discontinuity like this pandemic, the more drastic and lasting the changes are likely to be. Much more will be changed if we endure a year or more of social distancing, or if we enter this century’s Great Depression. Intensity is also important: industries and communities that were hit hardest by the virus or the economic fallout will show the most change. Proximity is another factor: fields and activities closest to the pandemic’s direct effects will be the most transformed. These include disease research, healthcare, public health, and disaster preparation.

A step toward clarity

As professional futurists, we don’t do predictions. Rather, we help people understand the possible range of futures and equip them to make smart choices about those futures. Right now, that range of futures may feel incomprehensibly broad. And it is broad: no thoughtful forecast for the post-pandemic world should be dismissed casually. There will be unexpected outcomes, tertiary effects, and emergent phenomena.

Still, we believe the framework above offers an initial filter to make sense of what’s really changing. We hope it may help you, and perhaps also your organization or industry, find a little more clarity in a world awash in uncertainty.

We’d love to hear your thoughts on post-pandemic forecasts you encounter, in your field or more generally, and we’d appreciate feedback about this framework for assessing post-pandemic forecasts. Please comment below or come say hello@foresightalliance.com.