In 2030, the retail environment sees ubiquitous same-day delivery of online goods and autonomous-vehicle pickup and delivery of store purchases. Consolidation across e-commerce and retail industries has left only a handful of players that can combine logistical sophistication with a national footprint. Convenience and availability, not impulse, drive consumer purchasing in this future, making branded goods an exclusive differentiator between sales conduits. Strong brand identity is needed to motivate consumers to make purchases beyond their convenience threshold.
What’s driving this forecast…
- It’s not e-commerce, it’s just commerce. The boundaries between online and physical retail are blurring due to online ordering and in-store pickup.
- Automation advances. Drone, truck, and vehicle technologies are rapidly becoming capable of real-world autonomous operation.
- Inventory on demand. Stores are giving consumers real-time access to product availability in nearby stores.
What this means for companies…
- Low-friction transactions. Amazon Prime removes the friction from transactions and locks customers into its storefronts. Other industries must innovate to remove friction and create customer lock-in.
- Packaging peril. Declining in-store purchasing changes product packaging. Online appeal in images, and the “unboxing” experience, are elevated in importance.
- Brand deal-breakers. The most successful brands are those that motivate consumers to make the extra effort to avoid the convenience of store brands, generics, or competing brands.
- Clerks become pickers. With the point-of-sale increasingly disintermediated by app and online purchasing, store staff will shift from checking out customers to picking products to fulfill orders.
- Big data convenience. Companies can use consumer purchase histories to streamline the purchase of future items.
For more on the future of brands and branding, see our report The Future of Brands 2030.