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The threat of automation to jobs is one that generates a lot of media coverage these days, and there is a lot of anxiety over employment, job quality, and how automation (both software and hardware) could impact livelihoods.
A November 2015 report from McKinsey found that of 750 jobs surveyed, 45% of the activities people are paid to do could be automated using current technologies. At the same time their research found that 60% of current jobs could see one-third of the work associated with them automated.
So what does this mean for workers? That is one of the central themes of The Futures of Work, our new year-long study of the future of work. Our research found there are two broad scenarios people foresee for automation: Human-Machine Cooperation, in which people and automated systems work together to produce something greater than either could do singly; and Machines Take Over, a darker future where the fears about job elimination are realized.
As we state in our report:
The divergence in these forecast perspectives is largely in their long-term outcomes. In the short and medium term, both views agree that there will be substantial job displacement for workers and an ongoing challenge to keep displaced workers from falling into poverty. Both see an increasingly pressing need to identify effective ways to manage automation’s impacts on human livelihoods with meaningful interventions that mitigate and reverse the harmful effects.
For a more detailed exploration of the issues of automation and other issues impacting the future of work, you can download our report.
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