“It’s all smart kitchens and talking bikes these days.”
In the aftermath of the U.S. Supreme Court decision that allowed same-sex marriage, there has been a lot of discussion on the how quickly the issue evolved from a fringe concept to a mainstream idea, and how not many people—including gay people—expected opinion to shift as rapidly as it did. You know who did expect this evolution? Futurists.
Well, kind of. Back in 2005, when same-sex marriage was legal in two states, we conducted an internal Delphi poll on when we thought it would be legal in half the states. The average forecast was 2015, the median 2012, while in reality this point was reached in 2014. Not bad.
Though the social shift on this issue felt quite rapid, Bloomberg compiled data on past issues. Perhaps surprisingly, some other social issues in American history have evolved about as quickly.
Predictions are not a futurist goal, but we are pleased when we see evidence that we understand the dynamics of a situation well enough to give meaningful timeframes.
Image: SuzetteFranck (Flickr)
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