Just after the terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001, my colleagues and I sat down and considered their likely impacts, in the short and long terms.
The short-term list was based mostly on observation: what was happening around us. The long-term list was provoked by people’s assertions that everything would be changed for a very long time, even “forever.” For instance, irony itself was said to be dead.
We knew that many things would change, some for a very long time, but, as futurists, we knew also how resistant to change people are, as individuals and as a society. So we set out to make some forecasts of what would be affected, and for how long.
Our Forecasts from 2001
Sphere | Effects as of 2001 | Forecast for 5-10 Years |
Architecture |
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Business practices |
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Cities |
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Economy |
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Environment |
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Foreign policy |
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Futurism |
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Government |
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Medicine and health |
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Military |
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Politics |
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Risk and safety |
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Security |
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Society |
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Technology |
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Travel |
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Most of the effects we thought would diminish did in fact do so, so we can count many accurate forecasts.
There were also misses in our ten-year forecast:
- Foreign policy — We missed how the unilateral inclinations of the Bush administration would result in alienating allies, not valuing them, despite our noting heightened American nationalism. We also missed increased tensions with the Islamic world, though that was heavily driven by the invasion of Iraq.
- Government — We did not forecast that expanded police powers would persist, though we did foresee a long-term shift in the privacy vs. security debate. We also didn’t state that improvements in intelligence-law enforcement would be ongoing, and that has happened, at least in part.
- Society — We did not state that hostility to Islam in the US would spread, and be openly embraced by some politicians.
Some of these misses are due to the fact that we ended up in a scenario that was intermediate between a one-off attack and an ongoing crisis. We also wrote this in 2001:
“If conflict becomes prolonged and marked by recurring events:
- All the changed drivers are strengthened, and more of them push things past tipping points.
- The possibility of discontinuity-level attack rises.
- Higher probability of tension with and discontinuities in Muslim world.
- National security trumps other matters in attention and budget.
- Tourism and airline industries suffer badly.
- People subjected to long-term heightened stress.
- Lower confidence in affected systems, possibly including food, air, water.
- Heightened suspicion of Arab and Muslim Americans.
- More personal attention to security and survivalist-style autonomy”
On the whole, I would count this a solid forecast.