The foresight work we do for clients seems to have two primary applications: as a stimulus for innovation and as a key part of the situation analysis that supports strategy development. I was recently reminded of one of the most important principles of strategy by an unlikely coach—Mr. Hoots, the Muppet.
My kids (now thirty somethings) were showing me an old Sesame Street segment in which Mr. Hoots is helping Ernie with his saxophone chops. When Ernie blows the sax, he keeps hearing an unexpected squeak. Mr. Hoots diagnoses the problem immediately: Ernie is still clinging to his beloved rubber duckie. When he presses the saxophone keys, the duckie squeaks. Mr. Hoots explains, “You gotta put down the duckie if you wanna play the saxophone.” This line becomes the chorus of a wonderful jam session featuring many celebrity cameos.
But what struck me is that clients working on strategy—and even foresight professionals trying to choose their own business strategy—often get stuck exactly where Ernie is stuck. Once they have identified a number of attractive options, they can’t decide which one to pursue. Many groups that reach this stage prefer to convince themselves that they can do it all at once—hold onto the duckie and play the saxophone at the same time. But strategy is about making hard choices. A wise vice president I worked with in a major consumer products company used to say, “You haven’t picked a strategy until you can tell me what it is that you’re not going to do.“ In other words, “You gotta put down the duckie if you wanna play the saxophone.”